| Market | Avg → Now | 24h chart | Last 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 95.6¢→97.3¢ +$33.70 (+1.8%) |
$0.00
97.3¢ → 97.3¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | 87.04¢→91.5¢ +$76.69 (+5.1%) |
+$17.23
90.5¢ → 91.5¢ +1.0¢
|
|
Why it moved No clear catalyst found for the +1¢ move. Coalition friction over reforms continued on 1 Oct: Handelsblatt reports the sugar-tax proposal was blocked and the Union faction is weighing holding back tax reforms until the SPD-led labour ministry moves. None of this points to Merz leaving office before December, and No ticked up slightly. | |||
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 97.5¢→99.95¢ +$25.13 (+2.5%) |
$0.00
99.95¢ → 99.95¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 74.45¢→77.5¢ +$28.63 (+4.1%) |
+$9.40
76.5¢ → 77.5¢ +1.0¢
|
|
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 87.5¢→88.55¢ +$5.56 (+1.2%) |
−$0.27
88.6¢ → 88.55¢ −0.1¢
|
|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 14.89¢→14.95¢ +$1.50 (+0.3%) |
$0.00
14.95¢ → 14.95¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | 90.89¢→92.25¢ +$5.94 (+1.5%) |
+$0.22
92.2¢ → 92.25¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 88¢→94.5¢ +$26.00 (+7.4%) |
$0.00
94.5¢ → 94.5¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | 67.99¢→84.5¢ +$72.79 (+24.3%) |
−$4.41
85.5¢ → 84.5¢ −1.0¢
|
|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 90.99¢→97.35¢ +$17.45 (+7.0%) |
+$2.06
96.6¢ → 97.35¢ +0.8¢
|
|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 94.29¢→97.15¢ +$5.70 (+3.0%) |
+$0.40
96.95¢ → 97.15¢ +0.2¢
|
|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 79.87¢→77.5¢ −$4.16 (-3.0%) |
$0.00
77.5¢ → 77.5¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 86.99¢→92.5¢ +$6.32 (+6.3%) |
$0.00
92.5¢ → 92.5¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | 93¢→95.5¢ +$2.50 (+2.7%) |
$0.00
95.5¢ → 95.5¢ ±0.0¢
|
|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 83¢→89.5¢ +$6.50 (+7.8%) |
+$1.00
88.5¢ → 89.5¢ +1.0¢
|
|
| Total, 15 open positions | $8,228.13 +$310.27 | +$25.64 open positions only |
|
Copenhagen today: drizzle, 12–17 °C, rain 1.2 mm (100%), wind up to 4 m/s · sunset 18:42
| Night · Saturn >25° | ECMWF | ICON | GFS | DMI | MetNo | Wind 925 hPa | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 2 Oct 22:08–01:58 | 28% | 1% | 8% | 8% | 20% | 4 m/s 4–4 | Go: clear, steady air dew |
| Sat 3 Oct 22:04–01:54 | 74% | 100% | 70% | 59% | 95% | 10 m/s 7–10 | Out dew |
| Sun 4 Oct 22:01–01:50 | 87% | 83% | 94% | 79% | 79% | 13 m/s 9–13 | Out |
| Mon 5 Oct 21:54–01:43 | 100% | 90% | 99% | – | – | 17 m/s 17–19 | Out |
| Tue 6 Oct 21:48–01:37 | 16% | 94% | 87% | – | – | 9 m/s 8–11 | Out dew |
| Wed 7 Oct 21:42–01:31 | 87% | 100% | 100% | – | – | 9 m/s 3–10 | Out dew |
| Thu 8 Oct 21:36–01:24 | 26% | 47% | 51% | – | – | 9 m/s 8–16 | Maybe |
Cloud is each model's average over the hours Saturn is above ~25° and inside the balcony's clear arc. Wind at 925 hPa (~800 m up) sets the seeing: 4–6 m/s gave the sharp 26 Sep night, 16–19 m/s the blurry 27 Sep one. "Dew" means the air comes within 2 °C of its dew point. DMI and MetNo repeat ECMWF after about 2.5 days, so they are left out beyond that. Forecasts: Open-Meteo.